US: STR has downgraded its forecast of the US hotel industry for 2020, with Tourism Economics suggesting the peak of the pandemic will be at the beginning of 2021.
STR’s latest data from the US projects that nationwide revPAR will decline 52.3 per cent for 2020. ADR and occupancy is expected to slip 20.9 per cent and 39.7 per cent respectively, while demand is predicted to drop 38.9 per cent and supply by 3.7 per cent.
These statistics are slightly worse than those released by STR in June. The recent update shows a 1.7 per cent further decline in revPar, a 2.6 per cent further drop in occupancy, and a 2.7 per cent further fall in demand.
The group’s ADR and supply predictions are two metrics that show small improvement – by 0.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively.
Tourism Economics’ president Adam Sacks predicts the sector will not rebound to 2019 levels until the first quarter of 2024, adding that economic rebuild can appropriately be measured when the industry is largely through the peak of the pandemic – at the beginning of 2021.
Research from the Magid HTL Forecast Tracker also reveals a projected revenue loss of around $75 billion in room revenue across business and leisure travel in the US.
Consumer sentiment regarding business travel (attending a meeting or conference over the next year) showed a projected decline of 22 per cent.
The most recent wave of research, conducted between 29 July and 2 August, shows that 71 per cent of consumers expect to stay in a hotel 24 months from now. Only 56 per cent of consumers said they would stay in a hotel 12 months from now.
The Magid HTL Forecast Tracker is measured against a baseline of self-reported consumer travel behaviour that was collected 12 months prior to March 2020 in the US. New data is collected at various intervals to assess changes in travel intention.
